Super Typhoon Bavi continues its westward path across the Pacific, poised to pass close to the Northern Mariana Islands and affect every part of the region.
According to the latest forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and local authorities, the powerful storm is expected to track near or just north of Rota, delivering significant weather hazards to all islands in the Marianas chain.
As of Saturday evening, July 4, 2026, the storm’s center was located roughly 380 miles east of Guam. It was moving westward at about 8 miles per hour with sustained winds of 165 mph.
While the exact path may shift over the coming days, officials emphasize that no location in the Marianas will escape the storm’s influence, though areas nearest to the center will face the most severe conditions.
A typhoon warning is now active for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. In response, Governor Lou Leon Guerrero has elevated Guam to Condition of Readiness 2 (COR 2) effective 10 p.m. Saturday, with Joint Region Marianas following suit for military installations.
Forecasters anticipate that tropical storm-force winds will begin affecting the area by early Sunday evening. On Guam, sustained winds are projected to reach 50 to 70 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph.
Destructive typhoon-force winds are likely to arrive early Monday morning and persist into the afternoon as the storm moves through. These powerful gusts could cause extensive damage, particularly to weaker structures.
Poorly built homes with metal roofs may suffer total destruction, while even sturdier ones could sustain major damage that renders them uninhabitable.
Wooden frame houses risk partial roof and wall collapses along with shattered windows. Outdoor objects left unsecured will turn into dangerous projectiles, power lines and poles are likely to fail in many spots, and both healthy trees and saturated ground will see numerous branches snap and entire trees topple.
Heavy rainfall poses another major threat. A flood watch remains in place through late Tuesday, raising the risk of flash flooding and mudslides across the islands. Coastal areas are also under heightened alert, with a coastal flood watch and high surf advisory active.
Surf heights could build dramatically from 8-12 feet tonight to 25-35 feet near the storm’s core. Storm surge of up to four feet, plus wave runup, could lead to inundation as high as 15 feet in the worst-hit zones. This will likely close roads, flood low-lying homes and businesses, damage critical infrastructure, and accelerate shoreline erosion.
Maritime conditions will turn extremely hazardous. A typhoon warning for coastal waters urges all mariners to secure vessels and stay in safe harbors. Near the center, winds could reach 150 knots with gusts to 180 knots (over 200 mph), and seas may climb to 45 feet—conditions that are catastrophic for small boats and highly dangerous even for larger ships.
Local and federal agencies are mobilizing in preparation. The U.S. Naval Hospital Guam has canceled all outpatient services for Monday and Tuesday while standing ready for emergencies. Rear Adm. Josh Lasky and Joint Task Force-Micronesia are positioned to provide rapid support if requested, coordinating closely with local and federal partners. The U.S. Coast Guard has repositioned its assets to weather the storm safely and will assist with post-storm assessments and recovery.
Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged to finalize preparations immediately.
As Super Typhoon Bavi draws nearer, staying vigilant and heeding official guidance will be critical to minimizing risks during this powerful weather event. Forecasts will continue to be updated as the storm progresses.
