Adam Schein delivered one of the bleakest Green Bay Packers forecasts of the preseason Thursday, telling a national radio audience that the NFC North franchise is headed for a collapse.
“I am all in on the Chicago Bears…I think the Green Bay Packers will win at most six games,” Schein said on Mad Dog Sports Radio.
The clip, posted by the SiriusXM channel’s official account, framed the Bears and Packers as teams moving in opposite directions heading into the 2026 season. The comment immediately drew attention because it sits far below the market and far below Green Bay’s recent floor.
Sportsbooks have generally set the Packers’ regular-season win total near 9.5. A six-win finish would be three victories fewer than last year’s 9-7-1 mark and would match Green Bay’s lowest total since a 6-9-1 season in 2018.
The Packers have not finished with fewer than six wins since they went 4-12 in 2005. They have posted just five losing seasons since Brett Favre became the starter in 1992, and they have not missed the playoffs since 2022.
That history is why Schein’s number landed as a shock rather than a consensus take. Green Bay has reached the postseason in all three of Jordan Love’s seasons as the starting quarterback and remains one of the NFL’s most consistent regular-season operations under coach Matt LaFleur.
Still, the roster Schein is grading is not the same one that sat at 9-3-1 last December. Edge rusher Micah Parsons, a first-team All-Pro in 2025, is on the physically unable to perform list after tearing an ACL and is expected to miss at least the first four games.
Running back Josh Jacobs, Green Bay’s leading rusher the past two seasons, was placed on the commissioner’s exempt list and will not be available to open the year. Tight end Tucker Kraft is working back from his own torn ACL. Several offensive linemen also missed significant practice time this summer.
Those absences matter immediately. The Packers open Sept. 13 at Minnesota, then visit the New York Jets before hosting Atlanta on a short week. Parsons is not expected back until around the Week 6 home game against Dallas at the earliest.
Green Bay also changed defensive coordinators, hiring Jonathan Gannon after Jeff Hafley left for Miami. LaFleur enters his eighth season with a strong regular-season record but growing pressure after another late fade and a third straight wild-card exit.
Last season ended with four consecutive regular-season losses and a 31-27 wild-card defeat at Chicago, where the Packers blew a 21-3 halftime lead. The Bears finished 11-6, won the NFC North for the first time since 2018 and now return Caleb Williams for a third year under coach Ben Johnson.
Schein’s argument is that the division’s balance has shifted and that Green Bay’s remaining questions are large enough to produce a historic drop. Six wins would require the Packers to lose at least 11 games in a 17-game season, a level of decline the franchise has rarely approached in the modern era.
Most public projections still place Green Bay closer to a wild card race than a rebuild. One recent independent forecast even had the Packers at 8-9, a losing record but still two wins better than Schein’s ceiling.
The gap between those views is the story. Either Love and LaFleur stabilize a short-handed roster quickly, or Schein’s outlier becomes the first major warning that Green Bay’s long run of respectability is finally breaking.
