The Toronto Blue Jays were able to convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to stay long term, signing the first baseman to a 14-year, $500 million contract extension, preventing him from hitting the free-agent market next winter.
That’s all well and good, considering that Guerrero is one of the best talents in baseball and is homegrown player that may very well spend the rest of his career in Toronto.
However, while the Blue Jays aren’t afraid of spending money, they aren’t exactly the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is a limit to how much they will spend, and Guerrero’s massive deal will put them in a tough spot when it comes to handing out other extensions or signing free agents.
For example, another player who will be looking for a new contract is shortstop Bo Bichette, who endured a brutal 2024 campaign but has historically been one of the best players at his position since entering the MLB in 2019. Bichette is slated to become a free agent next winter, which makes things very complicated for a Toronto squad that now ranks fourth in baseball in payroll.
Can the Blue Jays really fit that much more money on their roster? Matthew Sookram of Jays Journal estimates that Bichette will land a deal somewhere between Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years at $288 million) and Carlos Correa (six years at $200 million). Witt and Correa are earning $26.2 million and $33 million annually, respectively. Given that Guerrero is now making $35.7 million a year, that will make extending Bichette at market value very challenging.
Last year, Bichette slashed .225/.277/.322 with four homers and 31 RBI in an injury-plagued campaign. He made just 336 plate appearances, and he was only average defensively (the latter of which has been the story for most of his big-league career).
To put it plainly, Bichette is known for his bat, and his nightmarish 2024 season definitely hindered his value. Of course, a bounceback 2025 campaign would go a long way in nullifying what happened last season, but considering Toronto just paid Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through the nose, it needs to be careful.
Bichette is a lifetime .290/.332/.464 hitter. Before last year, he never posted an OPS below .800, so perhaps his brutal 2024 showing was nothing more than an outlier. But the Blue Jays need to be 100 percent certain that the 27-year-old will rebound and rediscover his prior form before extending him.
If Bichette only has a so-so performance this year, Toronto may need to make an incredibly difficult decision and let the former second-round pick walk.
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