This week, ESPN baseball analysts Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel released their annual rundown of the 25 major-league players most probable to change uniforms before the 2026 season begins.
Instead of ranking them strictly by the odds of a deal happening, the duo ordered the names based on each player’s expected trade value.
Sitting at No. 25—and carrying the highest probability of actually being moved—was New York Mets infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil, who the analysts pegged with an 80% chance of being traded.
The reasoning centers on a suddenly crowded infield picture in Queens and a roster that is prioritizing defensive upgrades.
“The acquisition of Marcus Semien took away McNeil’s at-bats at second base, and he’s not a great defensive outfielder, which, for a team looking to shore up its fielding, is suboptimal,” Passan and McDaniel wrote.
“The expectation, then, is that McNeil will be dealt, even if New York needs to eat some of his $15.75 million deal (with a $2 million buyout on an option for 2027).”
“At 33 (turning 34 in April), McNeil no longer profiles as the high-contact, line-drive machine who won the 2022 National League batting title. His power output has dipped in recent years, and injuries have limited him to fewer than 120 games in each of the last two seasons. Still, the left-handed hitter retains real utility for the right club. McNeil is a ‘nice to have’ utility player who can play capably all over the field and hit at a league average or better rate from the left side. He’ll be 34 in April, isn’t an impact type of player and has had some injuries the past few seasons. But he’s a valuable role player on a contender or a nice upgrade for a smaller-market club looking to upgrade its offensive floor.”
Complicating matters further are published reports of tension between McNeil and star shortstop Francisco Lindor. When push comes to shove, the identity of the player more likely to stay in Flushing is obvious.
With Semien now entrenched at second base, limited paths to everyday at-bats in the outfield, and a clear organizational desire to improve defensively, McNeil’s departure feels inevitable.
For the Mets, the remaining question appears to be timing and return rather than whether a trade will happen at all.
