No. 10 Alabama restored some stability to its season with a 31-20 victory over Texas A&M, ending a two-game losing streak and lifting its College Football Playoff outlook significantly before a high-stakes SEC matchup with No. 15 LSU.
The Athletic’s computer model now gives the Crimson Tide a 70% chance of reaching the 12-team playoff field, a jump of nearly 20 percentage points following the win. That projection still rates Alabama’s path to the SEC title as a long shot at just 11%.
Simulations from the same model assign Alabama an equal 8% probability of landing as the No. 7, No. 8, No. 9 or No. 10 seed if it advances. A first-round bye or home playoff game remains possible but less likely.
ESPN analyst Kyle Bonagura projects Alabama as the No. 11 seed, which would send the Tide on the road against No. 6 Indiana in the opening round of the playoff.
Both teams enter the Nov. 7 game at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge coming off an open week. Alabama improved to 6-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC; LSU stands at 6-2 and 3-2.
Early betting lines list LSU as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set near 54.5 points. The Tigers are coming off a convincing 38-17 road win over Auburn.
Alabama will use the bye to address injuries. Wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, who underwent meniscus surgery earlier this month, remains week-to-week and may not be available. Starting left guard Williams Sanders left the Texas A&M game with a lower extremity injury and faces an uncertain timeline.
“He has a lower extremity injury, get evaluated,” coach Kalen DeBoer said of Sanders. “He’s probably the one guy that could be out for a little bit, so we’ll kind of see. Know more tomorrow for sure, but maybe not a week-or-two. Might be a couple more than that.”
LSU coach Lane Kiffin expressed confidence after the Auburn victory.
“I think when we have our players and we don’t screw games up, we’re really hard to beat and we play really good and I think play as well as anyone in the country,” Kiffin said. “And that’s what this roster was put together to do.”
Not everyone is sold on Alabama’s rebound. ESPN’s Paul Finebaum remains skeptical of the Tide’s chances in Baton Rouge.
“LSU is getting a bye right now for Alabama, and Alabama struggled to get through Texas A&M,” Finebaum said. “I feel pretty good about LSU’s chances in that game. … LSU is a team that I am really intrigued by.”
Analysts view the winner as likely to stay firmly in the playoff conversation while the loser faces a steep climb. Alabama’s remaining schedule after LSU includes road games at Vanderbilt and a home finale against Auburn, while LSU still must host Texas and visit Tennessee.
The Crimson Tide ranked No. 10 in the latest Associated Press poll; LSU sits at No. 15. A victory in Baton Rouge would strengthen Alabama’s résumé considerably, given LSU’s current standing and the strength of the SEC overall.
With only a handful of games left, both programs treat the stretch run as critical. Alabama’s improved playoff probability reflects the value of the Texas A&M result, but the LSU contest will go a long way toward determining whether that boost holds through the regular season.
