A national analyst predicts the Texas Longhorns will finish the regular season at 8-4 and part ways with head coach Steve Sarkisian amid ongoing offensive issues and high expectations.
CBS Sports writer Brad Crawford made the call Monday, naming a Texas coaching change as his top prediction for the second half of the season. He projects the Longhorns, once seen as national championship contenders after beating Ohio State, to close out at 8-4.
“Sarkisian has to deliver down the stretch or the money in Austin will have an appetite for change,” Crawford wrote.
The forecast is a prediction rather than a report of any decision by Texas officials. It comes after consecutive losses that dropped the team from No. 1 in the rankings to No. 19.
Texas sits at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the Southeastern Conference following 27-24 defeats to Oklahoma and Florida. Against the Gators, the Longhorns led 17-3 before Florida rallied behind a freshman quarterback.
The offense has drawn much of the attention. Texas has gone without a third-quarter touchdown in five straight games, and the unit has struggled to sustain drives even with a heavily recruited roster.
Quarterback Arch Manning has completed 106 of 166 passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in six games. Sarkisian confirmed Monday that Manning remains the starter while calling for improvement.
“I think there’s no doubt about it. Arch can play better for us. He’s our starter. But I need to see a better version of Arch Manning,” Sarkisian said.
He has indicated the program will examine every aspect of the offense.
“Everything is going to be evaluated,” he said after the Florida loss. “Everything means everything.”
Sarkisian continues to handle play-calling duties. Reports note that backup KJ Lacey Jr. is expected to receive additional first-team repetitions in practice this week.
Moving on from Sarkisian would carry a steep cost. His buyout stands at $50.15 million at the end of the season, equal to 85 percent of the remaining balance on his contract.
He signed a new deal last year that extends through 2031 and is valued at just over $70 million.
Sarkisian previously led Texas to College Football Playoff semifinals in both 2023 and 2024, then guided the program to a 10-3 record in 2025. An 8-4 finish this year would represent a clear drop from those results.
Six regular season games remain on the schedule: home against No. 7 Ole Miss and Mississippi State, plus road contests at Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, along with a home date with Arkansas. The Longhorns would need to go 4-2 the rest of the way to reach 8-4.
Estimates from multiple outlets have placed Texas’ roster spending among the highest in college football, with figures above $40 million, though sources inside the program have disputed some of those totals.
The recent losses, combined with the offensive inconsistency and the size of the buyout, have heightened questions about Sarkisian’s future as the Longhorns enter the second half of the season.
