A surprising number of national analysts are picking the Washington Commanders to knock off the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday’s season opener, a result that would land as a genuine upset in the NFC East.
Bleacher Report’s seven-person NFL staff split 5-2 in Washington’s favor after making its Week 1 selections. The majority cited Philadelphia’s thinner receiving corps after the June trade of A.J. Brown and lingering questions about how quickly a new offense can click.
The Eagles sent Brown to the New England Patriots for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round selection. General manager Howie Roseman framed the return as long-term roster building rather than a short-term gamble.
“We’ve always been in the mindset a pick is a pick — a first-round pick is a first-round pick,” Roseman said. “Doesn’t matter. Teams are still going to be playing football in 2028.”
Brown left after four seasons in which he caught 339 passes for 5,034 yards and 32 touchdowns. That production is gone. What remains is a core that still includes quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver DeVonta Smith.
Smith finished last season with 77 receptions for 1,008 yards and four touchdowns. He has always been a precise route runner who stretches the field. Now he is the clear No. 1 target, a role that will draw extra coverage.
Philadelphia drafted USC wide receiver Makai Lemon in the first round to help replace Brown’s production. Lemon missed chunks of the offseason program with injury, so his Week 1 workload is still a question. The Eagles also added veteran pieces such as Dontayvion Wicks, but none of those players has Brown’s history of winning contested throws when Hurts needed a play.
Hurts was not a poor quarterback in 2025. He completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 3,224 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he added 421 rushing yards and eight scores. The offense as a whole, though, never looked as explosive as it did during the 2024 Super Bowl run. Philadelphia ranked 19th in scoring and 24th in total yards.
The team is counting on first-year offensive coordinator Sean Mannion to change that. Mannion, a former NFL quarterback, spent last season as Green Bay’s quarterbacks coach. Coach Nick Sirianni said he wanted someone who could tailor the scheme to the roster rather than force a rigid system.
“My goal throughout this process was to operate with an open mind regarding the future of our offense to find the best fit for the Eagles,” Sirianni said when the hire was announced. “Sean did just that.”
Sunday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field is the first real look at that fit. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. Eastern on Fox. The Eagles are 5-0 in Week 1 under Sirianni and have won seven of their last 10 meetings with Washington.
The Commanders have their own issues. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is on injured reserve with a triceps injury, leaving a shaky offensive line in front of quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels was the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024 but played only seven games last season as Washington slumped to 5-12. He now has Stefon Diggs opposite Terry McLaurin.
Oddsmakers still list Philadelphia as a 4.5- to 5.5-point favorite. ESPN’s projection model gave the Eagles an 80 percent win probability and a 28-19 score. Sports Illustrated’s MMQB staff went the other way from Bleacher Report, with five of seven picking Philadelphia.
The gap between those boards is the story of Week 1. If Smith can handle double coverage and Mannion’s timing-based attack finds a rhythm, the Eagles should control the game at home. If the new pieces stall, Washington has the dual-threat quarterback and enough weapons to steal a division win on the road.
Smith does not have to carry the entire offense. Barkley remains a featured runner, and tight end Dallas Goedert is a reliable safety valve. But Smith is the player who has to prove the receiving room did not collapse when Brown left. A strong opener would quiet a lot of the talk that five Bleacher Report writers already bought into.
Philadelphia’s defense, still coordinated by Vic Fangio, gives the Eagles a cushion. The unit was stingy against the pass last year and should test Daniels early. That may be the difference if the new offense needs a series or two to settle in.
For now, the prediction market is split between respect for Philadelphia’s recent pedigree and skepticism about life after Brown. Sunday will start answering which side read the roster correctly.
