Baker Mayfield is done listening to the doubters.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback delivered a clear message this week that his team plans to exceed the low expectations surrounding the franchise heading into the 2026 season. Speaking after practice, Mayfield made it plain he believes the Buccaneers are positioned to surprise the league.
“I think we’re gonna shock a lot of people this year. Everybody’s picking us to have a losing record, so… we’ll see,” Mayfield said.
Those words amount to a direct challenge to the rest of the NFL. After missing the playoffs last season for the first time since 2019, Tampa Bay has drawn widespread skepticism from analysts and oddsmakers alike. Many projections place the Buccaneers near or below .500, with some forecasting a losing record in a competitive NFC landscape.
Mayfield’s confidence stems from a familiar place. He has spent much of his career proving people wrong, from his walk-on days at Oklahoma to his rebound in Tampa Bay after stops in Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles. Now entering a contract year at age 31, the two-time Pro Bowl selection appears motivated to silence the noise once more.
Last season offered a stark contrast that fuels the current narrative. The Buccaneers started 6-2 and had Mayfield in early MVP discussions after a strong opening stretch. In the first six weeks, he threw for efficient yardage and multiple touchdowns with minimal interceptions, keeping Tampa Bay near the top of the NFC South.
Injuries to Mayfield and key supporting players then took a toll. The team finished 8-9, winning just two of its final nine games and losing a tiebreaker that cost them a division title and postseason berth. Mayfield completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while starting all 17 games.
Those numbers represented a step back from his 2024 career-best marks of 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.
The departure of longtime wide receiver Mike Evans in free agency has only heightened the external doubts. Second-year receiver Emeka Egbuka is expected to step into a larger role, and the offense will feature a mix of returning pieces and new additions under the coaching staff.
Oddsmakers have set Tampa Bay’s win total around 8.5 in many markets, reflecting the mixed outlook. Some independent projections lean lower, citing the late-season collapse and roster changes. Mayfield has taken notice of the chatter, noting that televisions and media coverage make the low expectations impossible to ignore.
“You can’t avoid it. There’s some TVs everywhere,” he added when discussing the projections. When pressed on his level of confidence, Mayfield responded without hesitation that he remains fully bought in.
General manager Jason Licht has described Mayfield as highly focused this offseason, arriving early and showing extra motivation. The quarterback has set personal goals of delivering one of the strongest performances of his career. That drive comes amid unresolved contract talks, with Mayfield seeking a long-term deal that reflects franchise-quarterback status while the team has been more measured in its offers.
Tampa Bay opens the regular season on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. Mayfield has embraced the challenge of starting away from home, framing it as an opportunity for the group to band together against outside voices. The preseason continues Saturday against the Kansas City Chiefs, providing another chance to build chemistry before the games that count.
Throughout his nine NFL seasons, Mayfield has posted a career passer rating of 91.2 with more than 28,000 passing yards and nearly 200 touchdowns. His playoff performances have been particularly strong, and he owns the highest career postseason passer rating among qualified quarterbacks. Those credentials, combined with two consecutive division titles in his first two years with the Buccaneers, form the foundation of his current optimism.
Whether the bold prediction materializes will depend on health, execution and consistency over a full 17-game schedule. The NFC South remains wide open, and a return to the postseason would require sustained improvement from the second-half struggles of 2025.
Mayfield has put the league on notice regardless. The Buccaneers enter the year as underdogs in the eyes of many, and their quarterback appears ready to use that perception as fuel. For a player who has thrived in the role of overlooked competitor before, the stage is set for another chapter of defiance.
The coming months will determine if the shock Mayfield envisions becomes reality or remains another preseason promise. For now, the message from Tampa Bay’s signal-caller is unmistakable: expect the unexpected.
