The Florida Gators dropped one spot in ESPN’s projected College Football Playoff seeding after a 45-17 loss to Missouri on Saturday at Faurot Field.
The defeat was the first of the Jon Sumrall era. The Gators entered the game 4-0 and ranked in the top 10.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich moved Florida from the No. 8 seed to No. 9 in her updated Week 5 bracket. That places the Gators between No. 8 BYU and No. 10 Ole Miss.
Missouri piled up 560 yards of total offense in the 28-point win. Florida’s run game was shut down and its defense was exposed.
Dinich said several factors would still keep Florida inside the top 10 despite the result.
“The Gators were outplayed in every phase against Missouri, and the selection committee members would have a hard time with this, but in the end, several factors would keep Florida in the top 10. The committee would refer to the head-to-head results of Florida beating Ole Miss and the Rebels beating LSU,” Dinich said.
She pointed to Missouri’s earlier loss to Mississippi State and a schedule that includes just one other Power 4 win, against 2-2 Kansas.
“Florida got trounced, and there’s no way to sugarcoat it,” Dinich said.
The projection reflects where teams would stand today, not on Selection Sunday.
“This is a snapshot of where Florida would be ranked today, not on Selection Day. That would look different because the loss to Mizzou was devastating to Florida’s playoff hopes. The Gators still have to play Texas and Georgia this month — both away from Gainesville. They can’t afford to go 0-2 against them because three-loss Florida is unlikely to reach the CFP. So while the immediate impact of Saturday’s loss was minimal, the long-term effect could be costly,” Dinich said.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Texas a 78.3 percent chance to win when the teams meet Oct. 17 in Austin. Georgia is also projected as a loss for Florida.
In the Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday, Florida fell eight spots to No. 16. Missouri rose 11 places to No. 14.
Eleven AP voters still ranked Florida ahead of Missouri. Those ballots cited Florida’s 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss and Missouri’s loss to Mississippi State.
Dinich’s projected 12-team field lists Texas (4-0) first, followed by Ohio State (4-1), Georgia (5-0), Miami (5-0), Alabama (5-0), Notre Dame (5-0), Indiana (5-0), BYU (4-0), Florida (4-1), Ole Miss (3-1), LSU (4-1) and Oregon (3-1).
Under that bracket, Florida would open on the road against BYU in the first round. The winner would face top-seeded Texas in the quarterfinals.
Florida is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in Southeastern Conference play. The Gators host South Carolina on Saturday in their homecoming game.
A second conference loss this month would leave little margin. Dinich said a three-loss Florida team is unlikely to reach the playoff.
