ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Dallas Cowboys only a 45% chance to beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday in the NFL’s first regular-season game at Maracana Stadium.
The model makes Baltimore a 55% favorite and projects the Ravens to win by 1.2 points. For a Cowboys team already leaking yards on the ground, that forecast is less a close call than a warning.
Dallas (1-1) is listed as the home team after giving up a date at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys will try to survive a 10-hour flight, questions about the grass and a matchup that has historically gone against them.
Dak Prescott has completed 48 of 65 passes for 454 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. His fourth scoring throw last week against Washington gave him 249 career touchdown passes, one more than Tony Romo and the franchise record.
CeeDee Lamb has 13 receptions for 197 yards and three scores. George Pickens is still waiting for his first big game of 2026 after last season’s breakout following the trade from Pittsburgh. The passing game is not the problem.
The problem is stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Dallas is allowing 173.5 rushing yards per game and a league-worst 68% conversion rate on third down. The Cowboys have one sack despite generating pressure.
Safety Malik Hooker (forearm) and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) are expected to miss a second straight game. Cornerback Cobie Durant and safety P.J. Locke are already out. First-year coordinator Christian Parker is trying to fix a front seven that could not contain Jaxson Dart or Jayden Daniels.
Jackson has completed 38 of 56 passes for 559 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Henry has 212 yards and four rushing scores on 40 carries. He owns an NFL-record 26 games with at least 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns.
One of those games came against Dallas in 2024, when Henry ran for 151 yards and two scores in a 28-25 Ravens win. Baltimore leads the series 6-1. Jackson is 25-4 in starts against the NFC.
The Cowboys answered a 28-20 Week 1 loss at the New York Giants with a 37-20 victory over the Commanders. Baltimore opened with a 41-23 win at Indianapolis before falling 24-17 at home to New Orleans. Javonte Williams has 71 yards on 24 carries for Dallas.
Field conditions after heavy rain in Rio remain a concern. Both teams planned Thursday night flights and Friday practices. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who played here two years ago with Green Bay on a “mushy” field, said he is ready regardless.
If Dallas cannot get off the field on third down, Jackson and Henry figure to control the clock and the scoreboard. Prescott can keep the Cowboys close. The FPI does not see that as enough.
A loss would drop Dallas to 1-2 before another trip and a short week. The 45% chance is not a toss-up. It is a projection that the Cowboys’ early defensive holes will follow them to Brazil.
