Prediction market activity involving Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby has shifted noticeably toward the Dallas Cowboys in recent days.
On the Kalshi platform, the implied probability of Crosby joining the Cowboys climbed from 4 percent to 26 percent after comments from team owner Jerry Jones.
The market resolves on Dec. 1, 2026, based on the team Crosby is with at that time. A $10 position favoring the Cowboys currently pays out $15.22 if successful.
Current Kalshi odds list Crosby remaining with the Raiders or retiring at 70 percent. The Cowboys stand at 26 percent, while the San Francisco 49ers hold eight percent.
Jones fueled the movement with remarks made Tuesday before the start of training camp. He addressed the club’s openness to acquiring a major contributor for the upcoming season.
When reporters inquired about his readiness to contact other general managers across the league, Jones responded: “I’d be very interested–I’d give up the future to substitute where we are today–as to a player–to give you an idea about what I’d invest, something substantive, to get the right kind of deal and improve us for Opening Day–I would.”
The Cowboys had shown interest in Crosby earlier, before the Raiders arranged a trade that would have sent him to the Baltimore Ravens. That agreement collapsed after Baltimore withdrew due to issues identified with Crosby’s surgically repaired knee during a physical examination.
Trade discussions involving Crosby have not resumed in a meaningful way since the Ravens deal dissolved. Meanwhile, the Raiders could pursue their own addition, as defensive tackle Vita Vea has requested a trade and named Las Vegas among his preferred landing spots.
Pairing Vea with Crosby on the defensive line would strengthen the Raiders’ front before the regular season begins. Both the Cowboys and Raiders opened training camp on Tuesday, July 28.
The Raiders are scheduled to begin the preseason Aug. 13 at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Dallas opens its exhibition slate two days later on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.
Crosby remains under contract with Las Vegas, and no formal trade talks have advanced publicly since the failed Ravens transaction. Market participants continue to monitor statements from Jones and other executives for further signals.
The Cowboys’ elevated standing on Kalshi reflects speculative interest rather than confirmed negotiations. Settlement of the contracts will depend solely on Crosby’s team affiliation by the December deadline.
Observers note that any movement would require agreement between the Raiders and a potential acquiring club, along with resolution of any medical questions surrounding Crosby’s knee.
