Colin Cowherd raised the possibility that the NFL has already seen the peak of Patrick Mahomes, pointing to the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback’s recent statistical decline and recovery from a serious knee injury.
“What if we’ve seen the best of Patrick Mahomes, who’s coming off an ugly injury?… Over the last 3 years his passer rating is lower than Russell Wilson in that time,” Cowherd said during a segment of his FS1 show “The Herd.”
The host emphasized that the 2026 season carries major significance for both Mahomes and the Chiefs organization as they seek a return to championship form.
Mahomes, a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time league MVP, ranked No. 18 on the latest NFL Top 100 list voted on by players. That placement marked a sharp drop from his previous finishes, which had routinely placed him among the top five and twice at No. 1.
Over his past three regular seasons, Mahomes completed 66.0 percent of his passes, ranking 21st in the league. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, good for 30th, and posted a 75-to-36 touchdown-to-interception ratio that ranked 26th. His passer rating of 92.0 placed him 24th among qualified quarterbacks.
Those numbers stand in contrast to the efficiency Mahomes displayed earlier in his career, when he routinely ranked near the top of the league in most major categories and led the Chiefs to multiple deep playoff runs.
Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in November during the 2025 season, limiting him to 14 games that year. He finished with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before the injury ended his campaign early. The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time in years amid the disruption.
Cowherd noted the comparison to Wilson’s passer rating over the same three-year span as one measure of relative efficiency. Wilson, now a veteran journeyman, posted a higher composite rating during that period despite playing for different teams and in varying supporting casts.
The Chiefs open the 2026 regular season against the Denver Broncos on Sept. 14. Mahomes has been limited in the preseason as he continues his recovery, with the team monitoring his progress carefully ahead of Week 1.
Throughout his career, Mahomes has shown a capacity for rapid rebounds and high-stakes performances. He has led Kansas City to five Super Bowl appearances, winning three, and built a reputation as one of the most dynamic playmakers at the position.
Yet the combination of declining efficiency metrics, the physical toll of the ACL tear and the roster changes around him has prompted questions about whether the same explosive version of Mahomes will reappear this fall.
Cowherd framed 2026 as a pivotal year precisely because of those variables. Success would reaffirm Mahomes’ place among the elite, while any lingering effects from the injury or continued statistical mediocrity could fuel further debate about his long-term trajectory.
The Chiefs have invested heavily in surrounding talent and maintaining continuity under head coach Andy Reid. Improvements along the offensive line and at running back have been highlighted as potential aids to Mahomes’ recovery and overall production.
League observers will watch closely how Mahomes manages the physical demands of a full season after major knee surgery. Quarterbacks returning from ACL tears have shown mixed results historically, with some regaining prior form within a year and others needing additional time to regain full mobility and confidence.
Mahomes himself has spoken in the past about his competitive drive and desire to silence doubters. At age 30, he remains in what many consider the prime window for a quarterback of his skill set.
The coming months will test whether the version of Mahomes that dominated the league from 2018 through 2022 can reemerge, or whether the more modest numbers of recent seasons represent a new baseline.
Cowherd’s comments underscored the heightened scrutiny facing both the quarterback and the franchise as training camp wraps up and the regular season approaches.
For a player long viewed as the face of the modern NFL, the 2026 campaign now carries the weight of proving that the best is still ahead rather than already in the rearview mirror.
