Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck is projected to earn $4.1 million through arbitration for 2027, according to a model published Friday by MLB Trade Rumors, a figure just below the salary he received while recovering from elbow surgery.
The estimate, produced by Matt Swartz’s long-running formula, lists the Red Sox right-hander at 5.100 years of major league service. That would be his final year of arbitration eligibility before free agency after the 2027 season.
Houck avoided a hearing last winter, signing a one-year, $4.15 million contract with Boston in January, according to MassLive. He had agreed to $3.95 million the previous offseason.
Swartz’s model projects salaries from playing time, position, role and performance, with an adjustment for inflation. MLB Trade Rumors says the results are a payroll guide, not a scorecard for any one negotiation.
The site also notes that service-time totals are not final and that the Super Two cutoff is not official. Houck’s case does not depend on that line.
His platform season supplied almost no innings. Reinstated from the 60-day injured list, he started Sept. 27 against the Chicago Cubs and allowed three earned runs on four hits in three innings.
Alex Bregman hit two of those home runs. Houck struck out one, walked none and took the loss in a 6-2 defeat, his first major league start in 503 days.
He closed 2026 at 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The outing did little to rebuild the record that arbitration panels typically weigh.
The year before was worse. Houck went 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA in 43 2/3 innings in 2025 before elbow trouble ended his season in May, according to ESPN and Baseball-Reference-tracked totals cited by multiple outlets.
He later underwent a hybrid ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction with a flexor tendon repair. Boston placed him on the 60-day injured list in March 2026 as he worked back.
Those seasons sit against a career peak. In 2024, Houck made the All-Star team, going 9-10 with a 3.12 ERA over 178 2/3 innings and 30 starts, with 154 strikeouts.
Through seven seasons, all with Boston, he is 24-33 with a 4.00 ERA, 450 strikeouts and a 1.24 WHIP in 477 1/3 innings, StatMuse reported after his return.
The Red Sox drafted him 24th overall out of Missouri in 2017. He debuted in September 2020 and later moved from a hybrid role into the rotation.
MLB Trade Rumors projects 17 arbitration-eligible Red Sox, the largest class on its team-by-team list. Jarren Duran is projected at $11.1 million and Adley Rutschman at $9.1 million.
Wilyer Abreu is listed at $4.6 million. Among pitchers, Houck’s $4.1 million estimate sits above Kutter Crawford at $2.8 million and Johan Oviedo at $1.8 million.
Teams and agents usually settle by comparing recent seasons, and contracts signed before the non-tender deadline are not always treated as standard comparables, the site said. Houck’s thin recent workload could shape that discussion.
A healthy 2027 would be his last chance to rebuild value before free agency. The projection leaves Boston a modest raise on paper, with the real cost tied to whether the elbow holds.
