In the latest edition of The Athletic’s comprehensive college football quarterback tiers for the 2026 season, Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker earned the No. 6 spot overall — one position ahead of Texas star Arch Manning at No. 7. Both landed in the elite Tier 1, which features the top projected starters across FBS.
Mestemaker, a former walk-on who transferred from North Texas to Oklahoma State alongside coach Eric Morris and key pieces of the offense, dominated as the FBS passing leader in 2025 with 4,379 yards. He posted strong efficiency numbers: 68.9% completion, 9.5 yards per attempt, 34 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.
Experts heaped praise on the 6-3, 215-pound third-year quarterback. One personnel director called his arm talent the best in the Big 12, while a conference staffer declared, “That kid’s so good. … He’s good enough with his legs but his arm talent is freaky.” Another Big 12 assistant labeled him “probably the face of the Big 12 from a quarterback standpoint.”
The continuity factor stands out: Mestemaker brings the same head coach, play-caller, and position coach, along with about 18 former teammates.
Experts view the jump from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 as manageable rather than overwhelming. Dane Brugler highlighted his ability to thrive off-platform, elevate his eyes under pressure, and deliver downfield strikes, though he noted some expected mistakes in a tougher league.
Manning, the 6-4, 226-pound Texas quarterback entering his fourth year, drew more polarized opinions. Supporters praised his elite physical tools, improvement throughout 2025, leadership, and tenacity. An SEC general manager called him “top tier in the country,” and a Big 12 offensive coordinator respected his resilience after a slow start.
Critics, however, described him as “just OK” and “a little bit overhyped.” His 2025 stats showed room for growth (61.4% completion, 7.8 yards per attempt, 26 TDs, 7 INTs), partly attributed to early offensive line struggles. Texas bolstered the line and added transfer weapons, raising expectations for greater consistency.
Nick Baumgardner noted Manning’s sky-high potential: Had he entered the prior draft, he might have been a top-five pick based on size, arm, and athleticism. A strong second half of 2025 positioned him as a potential No. 1 overall prospect if he sustains that form.
The Athletic polled dozens of anonymous coaches, GMs, scouts, and personnel executives across conferences for this ranking of all 138 projected FBS starters. It emphasizes current college performance over pure NFL projection, grouping players into tiers based on natural separations in feedback.
Mestemaker’s placement ahead of Manning underscores the respect he’s earned for production and traits in a system that fits him perfectly. While Manning carries the Manning family pedigree and massive upside, evaluators gave the slight edge to Mestemaker’s proven arm talent and fit heading into 2026.
This one-spot difference highlights the razor-thin margins at the top of college football’s most scrutinized position. Both quarterbacks will be central to their teams’ playoff hopes — Mestemaker as the Big 12’s potential face and Manning as a key piece for a loaded Texas squad in the SEC.
As the season approaches, expect plenty of debate over whether Mestemaker can sustain his ascent against Power conference defenses and if Manning can silence doubters with consistent excellence.
