Ohio State enters the 2026 college football season surrounded by the familiar assumption that a playoff berth is all but assured. Talent, coaching continuity under Ryan Day, and recent national relevance have led many to treat the Buckeyes as automatic inclusions in the expanded College Football Playoff field.
That confidence, however, deserves a closer look before the first snap is even taken.
In an analysis for A to Z Sports, Tegan Randolph cautioned that Ohio State is not the lock many imagine.
Randolph pointed to two interlocking concerns: whether quarterback Julian Sayin can take the next developmental step and whether the program can survive a road schedule that looks far more punishing than the one it faced a year ago.
Those two variables, he argued, shrink the margin for error enough that premature coronation is unwise.
Sayin’s 2025 numbers were undeniably strong. He completed a high percentage of his passes and ranked among the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. Those figures, though, arrived against a comparatively manageable slate.
When protection broke down or decisions had to be made in a collapsing pocket, the picture grew less certain. Randolph observed that flashes of high-level play are not the same as sustaining that level against elite competition week after week.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has spoken glowingly of Sayin’s football intelligence and maturity, yet those compliments will be tested against defenses that have had a full year to study him. 2026 will demand consistency rather than occasional brilliance.
The schedule compounds the quarterback question. A Week 2 trip to Austin to face Texas already qualifies as one of the season’s most anticipated games and a legitimate toss-up. Later road dates at Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Nebraska place Ohio State in hostile stadiums against programs that will treat the visit as a measuring-stick opportunity.
Even the home calendar offers limited relief. Oregon comes to Columbus, and the annual Michigan game remains a coin-flip regardless of roster talent. Lined up beside last year’s slate, the difference is stark. One or two unexpected losses on the road could turn a presumed playoff team into a program fighting for positioning.
None of this means Ohio State should be left out of early projections. The Buckeyes still possess the personnel and infrastructure of a national contender, and Randolph himself continues to forecast a playoff appearance. The distinction is between a strong likelihood and an ironclad guarantee.
Until Sayin proves he can operate at an elite level for an entire season against this caliber of opponent, and until the team navigates the gauntlet of difficult away games, the Buckeyes remain a favorite rather than a certainty.
Fans who treat 2026 as a formality may discover the season is more precarious than the preseason narrative suggested.
