The Heisman Trophy market moved with unusual speed after Miami’s season opener, and the biggest casualty of that movement was Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr.
For weeks, he sat alone at the top of the betting boards. After Darian Mensah carved up Stanford on Friday night, Carr was no longer the favorite. He slipped to second at 9-to-1 while Mensah vaulted to 6-to-1, per BetOnline.ag.
Mensah’s numbers were eye-catching: 27 completions in 30 attempts for 401 yards in a 45-6 rout. His teammate Malachi Toney piled up 234 receiving yards and three scores in the same game, and both players saw their Heisman prices shrink overnight. The rest of the board shifted with them.
Arch Manning of Texas and Dante Moore of Oregon sit tied at 11-to-1, with Ohio State’s Julian Sayin at 14-to-1. The numbers look dramatic because they are. One impressive debut is all it took for oddsmakers to treat last year’s favorite as yesterday’s news.
That reaction is understandable and almost certainly premature. Carr did not lose his place because he played poorly. He lost it because someone else played spectacularly in Week 1. Notre Dame’s quarterback still carries the résumé Mensah does not yet have.
Last season, Carr proved he could handle the glare that comes with playing for one of college football’s most visible programs. He enters 2026 with higher expectations and a fuller body of work.
Heisman voters historically reward more than a single box-score explosion. They look at consistency, November performance, and the size of the stage a player occupies week after week.
Miami will keep national attention after last year’s run to the College Football Playoff championship game. If Mensah strings together several more efficient, high-yardage nights and the Hurricanes keep winning, the conversation around him will stay loud. Toney’s presence only adds to that noise.
None of that automatically erases Carr’s standing. Notre Dame’s schedule, brand, and expected contention give Carr a platform that can amplify every good throw and every late-season win.
Betting markets love a fresh narrative. They also correct themselves. A quarterback who arrives as the favorite usually stays in the mix unless he gives voters a reason to look elsewhere. Carr has not given them that reason. Mensah has earned a seat at the table. He has not yet earned the trophy.
If the Irish deliver the season many expect and Carr remains productive through the grind of a championship-caliber campaign, the award should still be his to lose.
The odds may have flipped after one Friday night. The race itself has only just begun.
