The New York Mets are heading into a pivotal offseason with a thin starting rotation and a familiar question hanging over their plans: How much risk are they willing to take on a pitcher who could reset the market?
Team president of baseball operations David Stearns watched last winter’s big swing for Freddy Peralta fall apart. The right-hander went 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 22 appearances after arriving from Milwaukee, according to StatMuse.
New York shipped him to Tampa Bay before the trade deadline for three minor-league prospects and now needs a true No. 1 starter.
Tarik Skubal is the obvious name on the board. The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner becomes a free agent after the World Series and already has drawn plenty of attention from clubs that can write the biggest checks.
Skubal, 29, joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in an early August trade from Detroit. He missed time in May after having his elbow scoped, yet he has pitched like an ace when healthy. Since the deal, he is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 48 strikeouts in seven appearances, StatMuse data shows.
For the full season he has posted a 2.84 ERA with 164 strikeouts in 139 2/3 innings.
SNY’s Emmanuel Berbari said Friday the left-hander is worth the sticker shock.
“He’s absolutely worth it,” Berbari said.
“We’ve seen pitcher contracts now veer into the low 40s. This guy, you’re up in the market for one of the best pitchers of a generation. Of course he’s worth $50 million. The only question I would have: Does a salary cap factor in? Are you dealing with financial restrictions? But if you can pay him $50 million, are you paying Tarik Skubal $50 million? A big-game pitcher, wipeout stuff. My own question on top of it is years. Ten years, $500 million; the years worry me, but the $50 million number absolutely deserves it. I’d give him $60 million.”
Not everyone in the New York media is ready to write that check. Newsday’s David Lennon pointed to the elbow procedure and the length of the likely commitment.
“Skubal is a good guy to go there for, but I can’t do that,” Lennon said. “I’m not in that. The elbow thing kind of freaks me out from earlier in the year, too. I know he’s come back and pitched well after that, but when you see those little elbow things keep popping up, they could be bigger, bigger problems in the future.
“So that type of commitment, I know when you’re making it for a pitcher of that age, you’re building in the Tommy John surgery, all the other major surgeries, hoping you get a championship or two in the meantime. That’s just a huge commitment to lay out right there.”
Skubal turns 30 in November. No pitcher that age has ever signed for more than Stephen Strasburg’s $245 million, a seven-year deal from a decade ago.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that Skubal could double that figure if there is no salary cap, putting a $490 million contract on the table.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million pact remains the record for a pitcher. Agent Scott Boras is expected to push Skubal past that mark. Because Skubal was traded in-season, the Dodgers cannot attach a qualifying offer, so the cost of signing him is purely financial.
Chelsea Janes of SNY has already expressed doubt that Stearns will go there.
“My brain says no way,” Janes said. “I think that David Stearns hates giving out long contracts for pitchers. He doesn’t want to pay a ton upfront to bring in a guy like Tarik Skubal, who you might lose a year to Tommy John. That’s just how these things go and who might get worse on the back end. So, that’s not his style.”
Owner Steve Cohen has the money to outbid almost anyone. He has also said the Mets must operate in reality, which could mean stretching on years if that is the only way to land elite starting pitching. Prediction markets currently give the Dodgers the best chance to keep Skubal, with the Mets listed as the clearest runner-up.
The Mets still have several weeks of regular-season baseball left and then the postseason to watch how Skubal holds up in October. Whatever happens on the field, the winter conversation in Queens is already centered on one left-hander and one very large number.
