The New York Mets enter the offseason without a clear ace and with a 74-88 record that left them last in the National League East, 20 games behind the Atlanta Braves. Owner Steve Cohen’s club carried one of baseball’s highest payrolls, yet the rotation never stabilized enough to contend.
Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal is the most obvious free-agent answer. The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner was acquired from the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 2 and posted a 5-2 record with a 2.61 ERA, 70 strikeouts and 13 walks in 62 innings across 10 starts. His full-season line was 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings.
Industry projections place a long-term deal well into nine figures. A survey of 27 MLB insiders conducted by ESPN produced an average forecast of eight years and $355 million, or roughly $44.6 million per season. Estimates ranged from four years and $176 million to as high as $500 million over nine or 10 years, with most clustering between $325 million and $400 million.
That would surpass the 12-year, $325 million contract the Dodgers gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto before the 2024 season, currently the largest guarantee for a pitcher.
Underscore Media’s Sal Licata argued Wednesday that one pitcher, even at that price, will not fix the roster.
“In this particular spot, do you think Tarik Skubal alone is the difference-maker for the Mets? I don’t,” Licata said. “I think they need more than one guy atop their rotation, and if you’re telling me that there are going to be at least some kind of limitations, and forget the collective bargaining agreement, all that stuff, if there is going to be some kind of limitations.
“There always are; even Steve Cohen has his limit. It’s stupid to have the luxury tax threshold and not be able to go out and balance the team out if you need to. You don’t want to just go all in on three freaking players. It just doesn’t work.”
Licata pointed to the New York Yankees’ approach after they failed to retain Juan Soto. Rather than concentrate resources on a single star, they distributed the money across several additions.
“If that’s going to be a thing, then why wouldn’t you rather spread that out a little bit?” Licata said. “In theory, do what the Yankees did after they lost out on Soto and spread it out a little bit and allow you to add multiple pieces.”
SNY’s Keith Raad said Skubal has already shown he can handle a high-expectation market. The left-hander spent most of his career in Detroit before the deadline trade and has continued to pitch effectively for a Dodgers team that finished 100-62 and is pursuing a third straight World Series title. He is scheduled to start Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Braves on Saturday.
“Skubal has been there and done that a little bit, even though he’s pitched in Detroit and the fact that he’s pitching well for the Dodgers as the guy in the trade shows me that he would be fine,” Raad said.
Raad’s larger concern was internal. Recent Mets acquisitions have sometimes declined after arrival, and the front office led by president of baseball operations David Stearns has not consistently restored those players to prior levels.
“The only cautionary tale I would have is, again, Mets in-house; they brought in people, they brought in players that maybe started to go south. They have not been able to get them right. That’s the part that the Mets need to figure out in player acquisition. Can we get them back to the back of the baseball card, just a simple average of who they are?” Raad said.
Skubal turns 30 on Nov. 20 and is represented by Scott Boras. Twenty-one of the 27 ESPN respondents expect him to sign before Dec. 1, the date the current collective bargaining agreement expires and a lockout is widely anticipated. The Dodgers, Mets and Tigers were named most often as realistic suitors, with the Yankees just behind that group.
Some insiders expressed hesitation about the Dodgers because of uncertainty surrounding the club’s ownership.
The Mets’ 2026 pitching staff finished with a 4.15 ERA. Adding a front-line starter remains an obvious priority, but the projected cost leaves limited room for the additional rotation and bullpen pieces Licata and others say the roster still requires.
Skubal’s postseason performance with Los Angeles will shape both his market and the willingness of any club to meet the upper end of those projections.
