The New York Mets are known for throwing money around, even if it hasn’t worked out most of the time. But their failures may not stop them from making a serious push for Tarik Skubal in MLB free agency.
Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller is predicting the Mets will sign Skubal to a six-year, $280 million contract this offseason, a move that would surely have fans rolling their eyes.
Skubal enters free agency as the undisputed top prize available. The 29-year-old has established himself as one of the premier pitchers in the game, capturing American League Cy Young awards in both 2024 and 2025.
Even after a midseason trade that shifted him to the National League, his performance has remained elite. Over more than 100 innings this season, he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA, elite strikeout rates, and the kind of command that separates true aces from the rest of the pack. His recent stretch of dominance has only reinforced the sense that he sits alone at the top of this winter’s pitching class.
The logic behind linking him to the Mets is straightforward. Few clubs need high-end starting pitching as urgently, and fewer still possess an owner with the resources and willingness to spend at the level required.
Steve Cohen’s checkbook has become a constant presence in free-agency discussions, and the Mets already carry the highest payroll in the sport. In a market where the ability to commit more than $40 million annually over multiple seasons will separate the serious contenders from the rest, New York sits near the front of the line.
Yet the prediction also carries a heavy dose of irony. Despite that enormous investment, the Mets have spent much of 2026 near the bottom of the National League standings. Sitting last in the NL East with a record well below .500 and more than 19 games out of first place, they have been one of the least competitive teams in baseball even while fielding a roster whose cost ranks among the league’s highest. The gap between spending and results has become impossible to ignore.
That disconnect is not new. Over the past several years, the Mets have repeatedly turned to big-money free agents and extensions in an effort to accelerate contention. Some of those moves have produced short-term highlights, but far too many have failed to deliver sustained success.
High-profile pitchers have arrived with lofty expectations only to underperform or depart after brief, underwhelming tenures. Position-player investments have similarly fallen short of transforming the roster into a consistent winner. The pattern has left the franchise with an expensive core that has not translated into October baseball, and the current season’s struggles have only sharpened the scrutiny.
Signing Skubal would represent the latest and most expensive attempt to break that cycle. A pitcher of his caliber could immediately stabilize a rotation that has lacked a true ace for stretches of the Cohen era. At the same time, history offers caution.
Throwing the largest free-agent contract of the winter at a single arm does not guarantee that the supporting cast, the coaching staff, or the broader organizational approach will suddenly click. The Mets have already demonstrated that money alone does not solve deeper issues of roster construction, player development, and consistency.
Still, the allure remains powerful. For a fan base that has watched its team spend at historic levels only to watch other clubs advance deeper into the postseason, the idea of landing the best available pitcher carries obvious appeal.
Skubal’s age, track record, and recent form make him a different kind of investment than some of the older or injury-prone arms the Mets have previously pursued. If the projection holds and New York ultimately secures him, it will be the clearest signal yet that Cohen remains willing to keep writing the biggest checks in the sport.
Whether that check finally purchases the sustained competitiveness that has so far eluded the franchise is another question entirely. The Mets have spent years proving that payroll leadership and on-field leadership are not the same thing. A $280 million commitment to Tarik Skubal would test that lesson once again.
