The Los Angeles Dodgers landed the top pitching prize at the trade deadline by acquiring left-hander Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers, but one early offseason projection suggests their time with the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner could be short-lived.
The Dodgers trail the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 in the National League Championship Series after losses on Sunday and Monday. Skubal is scheduled to become a free agent once the season ends, and he is expected to command one of the richest contracts in recent Major League Baseball history.
Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report predicts the New York Mets will sign Skubal this winter rather than the Dodgers retaining him.
“The Mets have a good shot at Tarik Skubal simply by virtue of being one of very few teams that can afford him,” Rymer wrote.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel surveyed 27 MLB insiders on Skubal’s next deal, and the average projection came out to eight years and $355 million. That average annual value of roughly $44.6 million would top the current record for a pitcher and place the total guarantee among the largest free-agent contracts ever signed.
“When ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel solicited projections for the two-time Cy Young Award winner’s next contract, the average came out to eight years, $355 million. It would be the fourth-largest contract in the history of MLB free agency, and the largest for a full-time pitcher,” Rymer wrote.
“At that rate, the Skubal sweepstakes could come down to which of the Mets, Dodgers or Yankees would be most willing to take the risk. And of those three clubs, the Mets may have the clearest need for a No. 1 starter this winter.”
Only a handful of clubs can realistically meet that price. The Dodgers and New York Yankees both possess deep rotations already, while the Mets have a more obvious hole at the top of their staff after a disappointing 2026 season.
Owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at the highest levels, most notably on Juan Soto’s record 15-year, $765 million deal. The Mets also traded Freddy Peralta at the deadline, removing one established option from the rotation and leaving rising right-hander Nolan McLean as a potential co-ace.
Skubal finished the regular season 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA, 186 strikeouts and a 0.96 WHIP across 158 2/3 innings in 26 starts between Detroit and Los Angeles. With the Dodgers specifically, he went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 10 starts covering 62 innings.
He won the American League Cy Young Award in both 2024 and 2025, giving him two consecutive titles as the league’s top pitcher before the midseason trade.
Adding him would give the Mets a clear No. 1 to build around and pair with McLean, though one pitcher alone would not solve every issue on a roster that finished well outside the playoff picture.
The Dodgers still hold significant advantages if they choose to pursue a reunion. They have the financial resources, recent success with back-to-back World Series titles, and remaining frontline options in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. Losing Skubal would not dismantle their rotation, but retaining him would strengthen their chances of another deep October run.
The offseason market for elite starting pitching is thin outside of Skubal, which should intensify the bidding among the few teams capable of meeting his expected price. Whether the Mets follow through on the predicted pursuit or the Dodgers match any offer remains to be seen once free agency opens.
