Veteran baseball insider Ken Rosenthal delivered a blunt assessment Monday of the Chicago Cubs’ chances in this week’s National League Wild Card Series, saying he does not expect them to advance past the San Diego Padres.
“I don’t see the Cubs surviving this,” Rosenthal said on Foul Territory.
Rosenthal pointed to two factors he believes will decide the best-of-three series that opens Tuesday night at Petco Park: home-field advantage and San Diego’s bullpen.
The Padres finished the regular season 91-71 and earned the No. 4 seed, giving them the right to host all three potential games. They went 51-30 at home. The Cubs, the No. 5 seed after an 89-73 season, were 43-38 on the road.
That venue change is the clearest difference from last October. Chicago won a three-game Wild Card series against San Diego at Wrigley Field in 2025 before falling to Milwaukee in the Division Series. This time the Cubs must win twice in a park that has favored the Padres all year.
San Diego also enters October on a late surge. After sitting near .500 in late July, the Padres played like one of baseball’s best teams down the stretch and locked up the top Wild Card spot with a strong September.
Rosenthal highlighted the Padres’ relief corps as the second decisive edge. San Diego’s bullpen has been among the more reliable units in the National League, featuring high-leverage arms capable of shutting down games after the sixth inning.
Short series amplify that advantage. If the Padres’ starters keep games close, the late innings become a problem for Chicago’s lineup.
The Cubs counter with one of the league’s more dynamic offenses, led by center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, a leading National League MVP candidate. Chicago also owns elite defense and won five of six regular-season meetings with San Diego, including two of three at Petco Park in April.
Those facts have not changed Rosenthal’s view. He sees the combination of venue and late-inning pitching as too much for the Cubs to overcome in a three-game set.
Game 1 is scheduled for Tuesday at 10 p.m. ET on NBCSN and Peacock, with Michael King expected to start for San Diego. Game 2 follows Wednesday at the same time. A decisive Game 3, if necessary, would be Thursday.
The winner advances to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell has downplayed the setting, saying his team will simply show up and play. Rosenthal’s prediction suggests that may not be enough.
For Chicago, the path is narrow. The Cubs must score early and often, because once the Padres turn the game over to their bullpen, the window to mount a comeback shrinks quickly.
Rosenthal’s comments captured a sentiment shared by some analysts heading into the rematch: last year’s result at Wrigley may not travel well to San Diego.
The Cubs have the talent to make it a series. Rosenthal does not believe they have enough to survive it.
