The Chicago Cubs enter free agency with multiple holes in their starting rotation and a clear opportunity to re-sign Clay Holmes at a price that appears lower than many expected.
Holmes declined his $12 million player option for 2027, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, making the 33-year-old right-hander a free agent after a season split between the New York Mets and Cubs. He went 6-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 18 starts and 101 1/3 innings.
The Athletic’s Jim Bowden projected Holmes to land a two-year deal worth approximately $44 million. That average annual value of $22 million would represent a modest increase over the $12.67 million average of the three-year, $38 million contract Holmes signed with the Mets ahead of the 2025 season.
Holmes began 2026 in strong form with the Mets, posting a 2.39 ERA over his first nine starts. A line drive off the bat of Yankees prospect Spencer Jones fractured his right fibula on May 15, sidelining him for nearly three months. He returned after the trade deadline and made nine starts for the Cubs, finishing with a 4.25 ERA in 48 2/3 innings.
The injury was a contact event rather than an arm issue, which has kept his free-agent stock relatively stable. Holmes threw his sinker nearly 49 percent of the time and generated a 60.8 percent ground-ball rate, per Baseball Savant. That figure ranked among the highest in baseball and aligns with the Cubs’ strength in converting ground balls into outs.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has previously described the fit. “In so many ways, Clay fits our team really well,” Hoyer said. “He puts the ball on the ground. Even with us, it was a high-60s ground-ball percentage. We convert the most groundballs into outs. We thought it was a perfect fit.”
Chicago’s rotation outlook for 2027 remains unsettled. Justin Steele is healthy after missing significant time, but he has not logged a full season of starts in recent years. Ben Brown’s availability and effectiveness as a starter are uncertain. Edward Cabrera spent part of 2026 in the bullpen amid blister problems and inconsistent results.
Javier Assad and Braxton Garrett have not been full-time starters in recent seasons. Cade Horton is recovering from UCL surgery and is not expected to return until late in 2027 at the earliest, if at all. The club also saw Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman and David Peterson decline options or enter free agency.
Holmes, who turns 34 in March, has been durable outside of the 2026 leg injury. He made 31 starts and threw 165 2/3 innings for the Mets in 2025 with a 3.53 ERA after converting from a high-leverage reliever. Over the past two seasons as a starter he has posted a combined ERA of 3.44 in 267 innings.
The Cubs acquired Holmes from the Mets at the Aug. 3 trade deadline in a deal that also brought outfielder Tyrone Taylor to Chicago in exchange for infielder Jefferson Rojas and other considerations. Holmes had an exclusive negotiating window with the Cubs after declining the option, though he is expected to test the broader market.
Other clubs have been linked to Holmes, including the White Sox and Giants in Bowden’s projections. The Mets have also been mentioned as a potential suitor if they miss on larger targets. Holmes’ combination of ground-ball skills, limited arm injury history and relatively short projected deal makes him a practical option for teams seeking innings rather than a front-of-the-rotation ace.
Projections are not guarantees, and Holmes could exceed the two-year, $44 million estimate if the market moves quickly ahead of any potential labor issues. Still, the figure remains well below the annual salaries of several established free-agent starters and fits within a range the Cubs have shown willingness to consider for mid-rotation arms.
For Chicago, re-signing Holmes would address immediate rotation depth while pairing his contact profile with an infield that ranked among the league leaders in defensive runs saved. Whether the sides reunite will depend on competing offers and the club’s broader spending priorities this winter.
