Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch is projected to receive a $5.4 million salary for the 2027 season through arbitration, a figure that could leave the club with a relative bargain at a position it expects to keep filled.
The estimate comes from Matt Swartz’s long-running projection model published by MLB Trade Rumors. Busch is one of 12 Cubs players eligible for arbitration this winter, and the $5.4 million mark is the second-highest total on the club’s list, behind only starter Justin Steele at $6.8 million.
The Cubs’ season ended Wednesday with a loss to the San Diego Padres in the National League Wild Card Series. Chicago finished the regular season 89-73 and second in the NL Central before being swept in two games at Petco Park.
Several higher-paid players are headed for free agency, including outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki and pitchers Kevin Gausman and Matthew Boyd. Busch, by contrast, remains under club control and is not eligible for free agency until after the 2029 season.
In 2026, Busch appeared in 160 games and hit .242 with a .352 on-base percentage and a .393 slugging percentage. He finished with 20 home runs, 77 RBIs, 92 walks and a .745 OPS, good for a 106 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference.
Those numbers marked a clear drop from his 2025 breakout, when he hit .261 with 34 home runs, 90 RBIs and a .866 OPS while posting 4.5 WAR. His walk rate rose this year, but his power declined sharply.
Busch earned $860,000 in 2026 while still in his pre-arbitration years, according to Spotrac. Players typically spend their first three major league seasons near the league minimum before reaching arbitration in years four through six.
Arbitration salaries are set by comparing a player’s service time, playing time and production against similar cases, with an independent arbitrator choosing between the club’s figure and the player’s if the sides do not settle. Most deals are reached before a hearing.
Because this is only Busch’s first arbitration year, the projected raise is smaller than it would be in later seasons even if his production stayed the same. First-year awards are usually the lowest of the three arbitration seasons.
The rest of Chicago’s arbitration class includes Edward Cabrera ($4.8 million projected), Javier Assad ($2.3 million), Miguel Amaya ($1.7 million), Braxton Garrett ($1.6 million), Ben Brown ($1.3 million), Tyler Austin ($1.3 million), Gabriel Arias ($1.3 million), Daniel Palencia ($1.2 million), Ryan Rolison ($1.1 million) and Ethan Roberts ($800,000).
Teams are not required to tender contracts to every eligible player. A non-tender would send that player to free agency immediately.
Busch was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2024 season and has been the primary first baseman since. He was originally a first-round pick by Los Angeles in 2019 out of North Carolina.
His 2026 postseason line was limited to two games and no hits in five at-bats, with two walks, as the Cubs managed little offense against the Padres.
Whether the sides settle near the $5.4 million projection or explore a multiyear extension that buys out later arbitration years will be among the early decisions for the front office this winter.
