The Atlanta Braves could end up making a strong push for Randy Arozarena this offseason.
The three-time All-Star outfielder is headed for free agency after a career year in Seattle, and the Braves are the club one national prediction has landing him.
For a team that has spent years building around a core of homegrown stars, that would be a rare outside swing at the top of the position-player market.
In a free-agent forecast published this week, Bleacher Report’s Zach Buckley predicted Arozarena will sign with Atlanta. He framed the fit around money as much as geography.
Citing Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Buckley reported that multiple major-league sources expect Arozarena to clear at least four years and $100 million, with most of those sources seeing a five-year deal somewhere between $110 million and $125 million.
Buckley also noted that Arozarena has long preferred the East Coast, which would push a contract of that size away from the Mariners and toward clubs already built to contend. Atlanta sits near the front of that group.
The production that would justify a deal near $125 million is not subtle. Arozarena led the American League with 113 runs, posted a .865 OPS that ranked as the best full-season mark of his career, hit 26 home runs and stole 26 bases.
FanGraphs measured the season at a 151 wRC+, a figure Buckley placed behind only Yordan Alvarez and Pete Crow-Armstrong among the names being discussed as MVP favorites.
It was also his sixth straight season of at least 20 homers and 20 steals. Truist Park has a way of rewarding right-handed bats who can drive the ball and run, and Arozarena checks both boxes in a way few available outfielders do.
From Atlanta’s side, the appeal is lineup balance as much as raw thump. The Braves have lived and died with their established core, and an aging or injury-thinned outfield picture has left them short of a proven everyday corner bat who can also change a game on the bases.
Arozarena would not need a developmental year. He has already been an All-Star in Tampa Bay and Seattle, and he has played October baseball.
Dropping him into the middle of an order that still features Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley would give Alex Anthopoulos a right-handed threat opponents could not simply pitch around once the series turned.
The price is the complication. A five-year commitment in the $125 million range would sit alongside the long deals already on the books and would have to be weighed against pitching needs and the uncertainty of a collective bargaining agreement that expires before next season.
Buckley’s prediction does not claim Atlanta is the only realistic bidder. It does claim the Braves are the club most likely to write the check. If that holds, the winter’s biggest position-player signing would walk into a clubhouse that already expects to be playing in October.
