The Philadelphia Phillies are heading into Saturday’s meeting with the Tampa Bay Rays with their postseason margin reduced to a single game, and the club’s response is an unconventional one.
Aaron Nola, who last worked on September 23 against Milwaukee, will take the ball on two days of rest in what is expected to function as a bullpen game rather than a conventional start, via Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
Nola starting is not, by itself, a shock. What stands out is the shortened rest and the limited assignment that will likely follow. With the Phillies’ Wild Card lead over Arizona down to one game after three straight losses, the staff is treating the final weekend as an all-hands situation.
The veteran right-hander is expected to work as an opener, perhaps for 45 to 50 pitches. Three innings from him would be a meaningful gift, creating space for the rest of a taxed relief corps to finish the night.
That relief group has been asked to do more than usual down the stretch. Tim Mayza, often used as an opener, has already appeared in three of the last four games and is being held for Sunday if needed.
Jose Urquidy is a candidate to follow Nola after a scoreless 4.2-inning debut with Philadelphia on September 19. Jonathan Bowlan’s availability is less certain.
The right-hander has a groin issue that has kept him off the mound since September 17, though it has not put him on the injured list.
Pitching improvisation only works if the lineup produces.
The Phillies have scored two runs over their last three games. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper have all posted an OPS below .675 over the past week, a slump that has coincided with Arizona’s six-game winning streak and the evaporation of what once looked like a more comfortable cushion.
Saturday still offers a path to clinch the National League’s final Wild Card berth. Philadelphia would need a win over Tampa Bay and a Diamondbacks loss to San Diego.
A more distant scenario involving home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series would require the Phillies to wait until Game 162, win out alongside Arizona, and get help from Boston against the Cubs, which would leave Philadelphia at 89-73 and ahead of San Diego on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Manager Don Mattingly’s staff is making a calculated wager: that Nola can absorb a short, high-leverage outing now rather than throwing a routine bullpen session between starts.
It is a risk born of a thin rotation, a weary bullpen, and a one-game lead with two games left.
Whether the gamble holds depends as much on the bats waking up as on how many outs Nola can collect before the rest of the staff takes over.
