ESPN baseball analyst Tim Kurkjian expressed confidence Wednesday that Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes will overcome his recent struggles and return to elite form for the remainder of the 2026 season.
“I fully expect him to figure this out and be really good the rest of the way,” Kurkjian said during an appearance on SportsCenter, commenting on the right-hander’s elevated earned run average and declining velocity in recent outings.
Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, has posted a 3.96 ERA across 24 starts this season, going 9-10 with 162 strikeouts in 129 2/3 innings. That marks a significant rise from his microscopic marks of 1.96 in 2024 and 1.97 in 2025, when he established himself as one of the game’s premier pitchers.
The 24-year-old has shown a clear split in performance. In his first nine starts of 2026, Skenes recorded a 1.98 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and an 8.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Over his subsequent 15 starts, those numbers deteriorated to a 5.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 3.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His most recent stretch has been particularly challenging. Over his last three starts, Skenes owns an 8.16 ERA, the worst such span of his major league career. On Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers, he lasted five innings, allowing three earned runs on two hits with four walks and six strikeouts in a 4-2 loss.
Skenes’ fastball velocity has also declined. After averaging near 98-99 mph in his first two seasons, it has settled around 96.9 mph this year, with fewer pitches reaching 98 mph or higher in recent outings. Opponents have taken advantage, posting higher batting averages against his heater and offspeed pitches.
Despite the setbacks, Skenes continues to generate strikeouts at a strong rate of 11.24 per nine innings. His career totals through Wednesday stood at 30-22 with a 2.51 ERA and 542 strikeouts in 450 1/3 innings since his May 2024 debut.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick in 2023 won the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2024 and followed with the Cy Young in 2025, becoming the first pitcher to claim those honors in consecutive seasons since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85. He has also earned three All-Star selections.
Kurkjian pointed to Skenes’ track record and talent as reasons for optimism. The pitcher has demonstrated the ability to adjust throughout his brief career, including refinements to his repertoire after dominating at Louisiana State University.
Pirates manager Don Kelly has previously noted the team’s defensive support and run production have sometimes complicated Skenes’ efforts. The club has struggled to win games started by its ace at times this season, though Skenes has still limited hard contact in many outings.
Analysts have highlighted underlying metrics that suggest potential rebound. Skenes’ FIP remains notably lower than his ERA in the recent stretch, indicating some regression could favor him. His ground-ball rate has dropped, contributing to more fly balls and the 13 home runs allowed this year, more than in either of his first two campaigns.
Skenes has remained measured in public comments about the season, describing elements as “interesting” and “weird” earlier while expressing confidence in his overall approach. He continues to rank among the league leaders in strikeouts.
With roughly two months remaining in the regular season, the Pirates will rely on Skenes to stabilize as they push for improved results. Kurkjian’s assessment aligns with the view that the young star’s combination of stuff, work ethic and prior dominance positions him well for a strong finish.
Career highlights for Skenes include leading the NL in ERA in 2025 and posting a combined 21-13 record with a 1.96 ERA over his first 55 major league starts. Those numbers underscored the foundation that Kurkjian believes will help him navigate the current challenges.
As the Pirates prepare for upcoming series, attention will remain fixed on whether Skenes can regain the command and velocity that defined his earlier excellence.
For now, the insider’s vote of confidence provides a measured perspective amid the statistical downturn.
