In the final days before the MLB trade deadline, the Houston Astros find themselves staring at a familiar problem. Their lineup remains one of the more productive units in the American League, capable of carrying a club through the dog days of summer and into October. The rotation, however, looks increasingly fragile.
Depth is scarce, health is a constant concern, and the front office has already been priced out of the true difference-makers available on the market. That reality makes a rental like St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Dustin May an intriguing, if imperfect, target.
May is no ace. His 4.38 ERA this season reflects the inconsistency that has followed him through much of his career. Yet the underlying numbers tell a more encouraging story. A 3.91 expected ERA and the ability to miss bats when his stuff is sharp give him the look of a useful mid-to-back-end starter who can also shift into a high-leverage relief role once the postseason arrives.
For a Houston club that cannot realistically pursue the likes of Tarik Skubal, May represents a practical upgrade that fits both the immediate need and the club’s financial constraints.
From the Astros’ perspective, any deal for May would require creativity. Houston’s farm system ranks among the thinner ones in baseball, which means a one-for-one prospect swap is unlikely to satisfy Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom.
As Chris Landers of FanSided recently outlined, Houston would almost certainly have to part with a package of prospects to get a deal done. Landers’ proposed return centers on right-hander Ryan Forcucci and outfielder Joseph Sullivan, two players who embody the mix of upside and risk that often defines deadline conversations involving contenders with limited prospect capital.
Forcucci, a third-round pick out of UC San Diego in 2024, arrived in the organization with a loud fastball that could touch the upper 90s and a low release point that generates natural life. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2025 season, and his early professional results in 2026 have been messy, particularly in the walk department.
Command is usually the last piece to return after elbow reconstruction, so those early struggles should not be treated as definitive. The Cardinals’ developmental staff has shown an ability to refine raw arms, and Forcucci’s physical tools give him a realistic chance to develop into a mid-rotation contributor if the secondary pitches and control catch up.
For Houston, dealing him would sting because arms with that kind of pure stuff are hard to find, yet his distance from the majors and recent injury history make him more movable than some of the organization’s higher-ranked prospects.
Sullivan offers a different profile. The 2024 seventh-rounder out of South Alabama is a left-handed-hitting outfielder with plus speed, center-field range, and enough pull-side power to keep defenses honest. Contact consistency remains a question mark, and he has shown a tendency to expand the zone against higher-quality pitching. Still, the athletic traits are real.
In a system that has emphasized toolsy position players, Sullivan represents a lottery ticket with a chance to become a useful big-league contributor if the hit tool develops. Including him alongside Forcucci gives St. Louis both a pitching prospect who matches the developmental timeline of their rebuild and a position-player flyer with upside.
From Houston’s vantage point, this kind of package makes sense only if the club is fully committed to maximizing its window. The Astros’ offense can mask some pitching shortcomings in the regular season, but October is a different story.
Adding May would give the staff another option who can take the ball every fifth day through September and then potentially shorten the game in the bullpen once the games become must-win. The cost in prospects is real, especially for an organization that has already seen its farm system thinned by previous trades. Yet standing pat carries its own risk. A thin rotation that cannot keep games competitive will render even the best lineup irrelevant when the calendar turns to the postseason.
Landers correctly notes that Houston is one of the few contenders that would likely need to send multiple pieces to make a May deal work. That assessment aligns with the reality of the Astros’ prospect depth. The organization cannot simply hand over a top-five prospect and call it a day; the return has to be layered.
Forcucci and Sullivan represent the type of package that balances value for St. Louis without forcing Houston to touch its absolute highest-ceiling talent. Whether the Cardinals would accept that exact combination remains to be seen, but the structure reflects a pragmatic approach for a club that needs pitching help now and cannot afford to empty the cupboard for a rental.
