Baseball has a way of flipping scripts in the blink of an eye, and the Boston Red Sox are living proof of that right now. As the team prepares to kick off the second half of the 2026 season, their trajectory looks far different than it did just a couple of weeks ago.
For much of the year, Boston struggled mightily, lingering around 10 games under .500 and looking like a clear candidate to sell assets ahead of the trade deadline. Yet a timely surge changed everything.
The Red Sox rattled off nine straight victories heading into the All-Star break, climbing to a 46-48 record and positioning themselves just half a game out of a Wild Card spot. That hot streak has injected new life into their playoff hopes and altered their approach to the upcoming deadline on August 3.
Veteran closer Aroldis Chapman stands as one of the most significant pieces in this shifting landscape. At 38 years old, the flame-throwing left-hander may not possess quite the same velocity that once made him one of the most feared pitchers in the game, but he continues to dominate hitters with his electric fastball.
In 30 appearances this season, Chapman has posted an impressive 2.20 ERA over 28.2 innings, notching 19 saves along the way.
Many observers anticipated that the Red Sox would make Chapman available on the trade market, viewing him as a valuable rental who could bring back promising prospects for a rebuilding club. However, recent developments suggest otherwise.
MLB Network insider Jon Morosi reported that Boston enters the second half with a 40.1 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs projections. As a result, the likelihood of trading Chapman has dropped considerably.
“The Red Sox open the 2nd half with a 40.1% chance of reaching the postseason, per @fangraphs. An Aroldis Chapman trade is increasingly unlikely to happen at all,” Morosi posted on X.
This shift reflects the delicate balance teams must strike at the deadline. While the Red Sox could still decide to sell if their performance falters in the coming weeks, their recent momentum has them leaning toward contention mode for now.
Contenders across the league are sure to keep an eye on Chapman’s availability, but for the moment, Boston appears inclined to hold onto their proven closer.
The Red Sox face an immediate test as they return to action, opening the second half with a tough series against the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays, including a doubleheader on Friday. How they fare in the days and weeks ahead will likely dictate whether Chapman finishes the season in Boston or finds himself in a new uniform.
For a player with Chapman’s track record and current effectiveness, staying put could mean a meaningful shot at October baseball — something that seemed unlikely for both him and the Red Sox just a short time ago. The next stretch of games will tell the story.
